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Tim Ross is deputy head of news at POLITICO Europe.
PHILADELPHIA, Pennsylvania — Tom Peters fell in love with Belgian beer by accident.
After stopping for a drink in Brussels on his way to Paris in 1984, he needed something to take away the taste of a bad pint of Heineken.
Now he sells authentic Belgian ales 6,000 kilometers away to Americans seeking respite from the most divisive and sulfurous presidential election since, well, the last one.
That’s harder than it might seem in Pennsylvania — in the northeast of the United States — the most important swing state of all. Under the Electoral College system, whoever wins the state Tuesday will have the clearest path to the White House.
Pollsters say Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are effectively tied in the Pennsylvania race, and that has only intensified the aggressive nature of a campaign in the state that has already split families and communities and put election staff and voting centers under strain. “People live in silos,” Peters said. “Politics has become so divisive.”
Trump’s supporters say Democrats “hate America,” while Harris’ backers rage that Republicans will turn the U.S. into a “fascist” state. “I’m like, what the fuck? All of this is wrong,” he said.
The bigger worry, however, is what comes after the vote. If Harris loses clearly, “she will walk away,” Peters predicted. But if Trump doesn’t win, “I have concerns that there could be trouble on the streets.”
Monk’s Cafe in the center of Philadelphia, the biggest city in the swing state, opened in 1997 and now pours Belgian staples from Trappist brewery Chimay alongside Westmalle Dubbel and Brasserie de la Senne’s Zinnebir. With its dim lighting and wood-paneled walls, decorated in quirky art and brewers’ signs, this classic Belgian “brown bar” would not look out of place in the heart of Brussels, a city Peters visits often.
“I love talking about politics and religion, which are things that most bar owners would feel are off limits,” he said. Peters enjoys the fact that Brussels locals will readily strike up conversations with strangers over a drink. “Some of them, like people from the Netherlands, are brutally honest and I really appreciated that quality,” he said.
Honesty has been in limited supply during this year’s U.S. election campaign. Brutality, however, is everywhere.
For a start, Trump was almost assassinated — twice.
Even without actual gun violence, the debate has been inflamed. Take the TV coverage of the contest. While major broadcasters in the U.K., for example, must by law adhere to strict rules on impartiality during election campaigns, giving each party a fair share of airtime, there are no such limits in America.
Rupert Murdoch’s Trump-supporting Fox News is famous for its partisan coverage. Yet its commentators have reached heights of apoplectic frenzy in recent days that make even identifying their arguments a challenge.
One, Mark Levin, on his show “Life, Liberty & Levin,” literally screamed into the camera on Saturday night as he listed all the ways in which the U.S. Constitution and the Declaration of Independence compelled “red-blooded Americans” to overthrow the Biden-Harris administration. The theme for his scream was ominous: He yelled the names of famous American Civil War battles.
The other side, while usually making its point at a lower volume, is just as blinkered. On her weeknight evening show on MSNBC, progressive commentator Joy Reid makes no meaningful effort to balance her perspectives or those of her anti-Trump guests. She told viewers Trump is a dangerous “felon on probation awaiting sentencing” who has been “openly fantasizing about violent retribution” against his opponents.
The principals in this election drama are hardly any better. Recent days have seen Harris call Trump a fascist and Trump describe her as a “sleazebag.” Despite being shot, Trump suggested last week that Harris-supporting Republican Liz Cheney should face guns “shooting at” her, to see if it dampened her appetite for military interventions.
In the city of Philadelphia, most voters will back Harris. Blue, Democratic Party yard signs litter the sun-filled streets in the central part of the city, alongside placards saying “hate won’t make us great.”
Most of the European Union officials watching the contest from Brussels, along with the majority of EU and British politicians, will share Philadelphia’s outlook. The city, reputedly founded by Swedes, has plenty of European flavor, including Italian influences, German beer halls and a French brasserie called Parc.
Beyond the big city, however, Pennsylvania has a different character, with most communities proudly wearing their Republican red. Trump has many ardent fans in this state of 13 million people. When they vote this week, they will be doing so close to where it all began.
Philadelphia is the birthplace of American democracy. It was here in 1776 that the Declaration of Independence was agreed, followed in 1787 by the Constitution of the United States. The downtown district where these momentous steps were taken is now a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
When Biden defeated Trump four years ago, the city’s Democratic supporters celebrated like they had won the Super Bowl, honking car horns, waving flags and letting off fireworks. Two months later, on Jan. 6, an angry mob of pro-Trump activists stormed the Capitol in Washington to try to stop legislators from ratifying the result.
Trump maintains the 2020 election was stolen from him by a corrupt system, and his campaign this year has focused on that narrative. He’s vowed “retribution” against those he claims wronged him, and has prepared the ground for a new chapter in conspiracy-theory Republican rage should the official result not go his way again this week.
On Sunday, Trump angrily accused his rivals of cheating. “It’s a damn shame. And I’m the only one that talks about it, because everyone’s afraid to damn talk about it,” Trump said. “And then they accuse you of being a conspiracy theorist.” Trump backer Elon Musk, the Tesla and X owner, has echoed the claims of voter fraud.
At the same time, Musk has been giving away $1 million a day to voters in swing states who sign a petition in support of the Constitution. Critics say that amounts to an illegal lottery, but the tech billionaire on Monday won the right to continue in a Pennsylvania court case.
In Pennsylvania, residents and election officials alike are on edge. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner has warned that anyone attempting to intimidate voters in his area would face jail. “They can F around and find out,” he said.
In the years to come, this election will have a profound impact on world politics.
The decision of more than 160 million U.S. voters this week will determine who takes charge of the world’s most advanced military and economic power. If Harris wins, many Ukrainians will likely exhale with relief. If Trump triumphs again, his vow to end the war with Russia in a single day will make them shudder.
The Republican’s combative stance toward China and aggressive trade strategy would likely upend the global order.
Monk’s Cafe has as much to lose as any business. The beer that Peters imports from Belgium is already expensive, meaning profits need to be slim to retain customers.
Peters doesn’t want to say whom he voted for (like tens of millions of Americans, he cast his ballot early). But if Trump follows through with his plan to impose tariffs of 10 percent to 20 percent on all imports, it will hit businesses like Monk’s hard.
Before any of that, though, there is a more immediate concern. “It’s going to be a couple of weeks of angst,” Peters said. “I just hope it doesn’t erupt into violence again.”